Climate tipping points: act now

In just the past few weeks, several economic and scientific reports have emerged, underscoring the magnitude of future climate risk, the potential economic consequences and the importance of early action.

A striking new report from J.P. Morgan examines the business implications of the under-modelled phenomenon of climate tipping points. The author, Dr Sarah Kapnick, J.P. Morgan’s Global Head of Climate Advisory, frames the issue with a core question she is often asked by board leaders: what do the next five years look like, for me, in my job? Answering this question today is beset by significant uncertainty –from technology, to geopolitical disruption, to climate risk.

Uncertainty is bad for business. That is why major financial institutions like J.P. Morgan are sitting up and taking notice of a growing body of work suggesting that many of the models used to analyse climate risk are ignoring the proximity of climate tipping points. The report recognises the difficulty in predicting and understanding climate impacts, but warns that our assumptions can and will be challenged in the future. Businesses must therefore act now.

For instance, a large-scale synthesis of evidence from almost 300 studies by researchers at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science warns climate change could reduce average GDP per capita by 3–15% by 2050 due to rises in local temperatures and sea-level and climate tipping points. At the same time, the report highlights that a better future is possible if action is taken now, noting that "adaptation investments can yield a ‘triple dividend’, preventing losses, stimulating economic activity and providing social and environmental co-benefits".

A scientific article published in Science Advances illustrates just how fragile the systems that we rely on are, and the potential to trigger runaway tipping points that would fundamentally disrupt our economic system. The authors observe that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), critical to a stable climate, is experiencing a steady decline. The authors of another article, in Nature Communications Earth and Environment, demonstrate that this would turn ocean that was once a carbon sink into a carbon source, accelerating runaway warming.

Sitting alongside the series of powerful reports on climate tipping points and planetary solvency from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and the University of Exeter, this increasing body of evidence only serves to strengthen the board case for a strategic approach to lowering emissions that is rooted in maintaining resilience. It is a matter of business continuity and future growth.

The boardroom is the engine room for long-term strategic thinking in any business. It is where leaders look beyond the noise to identify long-term risks and opportunities, and to take decisions that will secure a better future for the organisation. That is why leading businesses are retaining a clear climate North Star, continuing to take climate action despite political headwinds.

Many are already reframing the conversation, placing decarbonisation at the heart of resilience precisely because they understand that the risk associated with inaction is intolerable.

This is demonstrated in new research from BSI in its 2026 G7 temperature check, a poll of more than 7,000 business leaders. It finds that finds that businesses are reframing net zero but remain committed to action and wary of the cost of inaction. The reason for this is clear: boards recognise that the risk is very real.

81 per cent of those surveyed expressed concern about future costs and the resilience of their business in the absence of action on climate change. 75 per cent said the cost of transitioning was outweighed by the long-term benefits. 77 per cent noted that climate change could disrupt their supply chain, while 75 per cent said that net zero was important for future resilience.

Uncertainty will always be a fundamental challenge for boards and nowhere is this more evident than in understanding and responding to climate tipping points. But this cannot paralyse decision making. The action that boards take now will determine which organisations effectively shape and prepare for a changing future. It is incumbent on boards to grasp this issue with both hands.

Chapter Zero will hold an immersive event for non-executive directors on this critical topic on 9^th June at FRAMELESS art gallery in Marble Arch. Speakers including Lord Deben, former Chair of the Climate Change Committee, and Emma Howard Boyd, former Chair of the Environment Agency and current Chair of the National Heat Risk Commission will provide their perspective on climate risk. Find out more and register to attend here.